ESPNreleased its FPI preseason rankings for the upcoming season earlier this summer andMinnesota football came in at No. 61 on the list. Based on those metrics,Minnesota is set to play the No. 41 toughest schedule in the country.Looking at each individual game based on these metrics, Minnesota should go 5-7 or 6-6 on the season.
Minnesotahas the 105th best projected win total. These projections give Minnesota a 44.5 percent chance of hitting six wins on the season.
According to ESPN, FPI preseason rankings are based on"past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections."
Below is a look at Minesota's 11 FBS opponents for the 2024 season, ranking them from easiest to toughest based on the FPI:
No. 11 - Nevada
Sept. 14
Location: Minneapolis
Opponent FPI rank: 120
Nevada is picked to finish last in the Mountain West this year out of a dozen teams. They were 2-10 last season and they are picked 120th in the nation coming into the season by Athlon. Nevada is rebuilding and they have a 13 game schedule that includes five non conference games against teams that went to bowls last year, including Minnesota. A bowl game appears to be a year away for this rebuild.
No. 10 - Illinois
Nov. 2
Location: Champaign, Illinois
Opponent FPI Rank: 62
Illinois is one spot behind Minnesota in the FPI. The Illini and Indiana are the only teams lower in the FPI than Minnesota. Obviously Bret Bielema has been a thorn in the side of the Gophers having NEVER lost to Minnesota as head coach. Bielema was 7-0 as head coach vs the Gophers as Wisconsin coach and he is 3-0 the last three seasons against PJ Fleck in the Illinois vs Minnesota match-ups. Minnesota is picked ahead of Illinois by both Athlon and Lindy's this season in the standings.
No. 9 - Maryland
Oct. 26
Location: Minneapolis
Opponent FPI Rank: 46
Minnesota is picked behind Maryland in every Big Ten preseason prediction I've been able to find but Maryland is in somewhat of a new era right now with a new quarterback taking over for Taulia Tagovailoa (who is now in the Canadian Football League). Maryland always recruits well and has talent but they've been short on putting everything together for a big run. They've won 23 games the last three years so they've projected up but a new quarterback means a new stretch for the Terps.
No. 8 -Rutgers
Nov. 9
Location:Piscataway, New Jersey
Opponent FPI Rank: 45
Rutgers has been picked to finish in the middle of the Big Ten with projections of 9 and 10 out of 18 teams from what I have been able to see. Clearly the college football predictors of the world feel that Athan Kaliakmanis is 18th out of 18 quarterbacks in the league this year based on rankings we have seen, so what do the Scarlet Knights have that will get them to the middle of the league? More depth. They aren't recruiting to the level they hope to yet but they have more depth led by bringing back six starters on each side of the ball. Last year they struggled at QB as bad as anybody so Athan is considered an upgrade for Rutgers.
No. 7 - North Carolina
Aug. 29
Location:Minneapolis
Opponent FPI Rank: 42
Like Maryland, UNC is entering a new era after losing a top quarterback in their history (Drake Maye). UNC is picked 8th out of 17 ACC teams entering the season but there are a lot of question marks entering the season. They will have a new quarterback and some young wide receivers, plus their defense will look a lot different. Their defense and new quarterback will say a lot about what happens for the Heels this season although they have a favorable schedule that includes Charlotte, James Madison and NC Central, plus they play nearly everybody projected at the bottom of the league (Pitt, BC, Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia). In fact, their game at Minnesota is arguably UNC's third toughest game of the season (after the road game at Florida State and home game with NC State).
No. 6 -UCLA
Oct. 12
Location: Rose Bowl!
Opponent FPI Rank: 40
Finally Minnesota fans, you have your chance to go to the Rose Bowl. It's going to be spendy! Those flight prices are ugly right now, although maybe a flight into Vegas for 500+ less and a four hour drive is the best idea? Whatever the case, Minnesota plays in Los Angeles in the Rose Bowl in October against a Bruins team that is picked to finish 14th in the league by every prediction I have seen. UCLA has been a quiet program for some time although they did win eight games last year. DeShaun Foster and Eric Bieniemy will lead the program against what is a brutal schedule that includes a stretch that goes at LSU, home against Oregon, at Penn State and then welcoming Minnesota.
No. 5 -Wisconsin
Nov. 30
Location: Madison
Opponent FPI Rank: 39
Wisconsin is expected to finish in that 7th/8th area in the league this year after a seven win season in 2023. Defensively the Badgers are expected to be very tough, but can they score enough points to win games? They will have to score those points against Alabama, Iowa, Penn State, Oregon and USC if they want to have the season they are dreaming of and this is of course with Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke in that Air Raid offense in Madison.
No. 4 -Iowa
Sept. 21
Location: Minneapolis
Opponent FPI Rank: 37
If you have to play Iowa, it seems getting them earlier as opposed to later, and playing them at home versus in Iowa City are good things. Iowa starts the year with Illinois State, Iowa State and Troy before coming to Minneapolis and they will do so hoping Cade McNamara is healthy, and their new offense is off to a good start. We know the Hawkeye defense and special teams will be at high standards and that Iowa will be hyper focused on bringing Floyd back south.
No. 3 -USC
Oct. 5
Location: Minneapolis
Opponent FPI Rank: 18
USC has been dynamic but not as good up front on either side. They will need to be better up front in a Big Ten that is stacked up front. The Trojans are expected to finish in the top five this year and they have the talent to do that. They should be a team hoping to sneak into the College Football playoff but they will have to do that while transitioning into a new league and doing it with a new QB.
No. 2 -Michigan
Sept. 28
Location: Ann Arbor
Opponent FPI Rank: 12
Most predictions have Michigan finishing third (behind Ohio State and Oregon). Defensively they will be outstanding as Mason Graham and Will Johnson will be Stars and the talent level is so high. But there is so much change to the coaching staff, so much change to the offense, there will be a new signal caller, and this program will be in the news constantly for past items. The defense will be strong but a new QB, OC, and O-Line is a ton of change.
No. 1 - Penn State
Nov. 23
Location:Minneapolis
Opponent FPI Rank: 6
Penn State is predicted to finish 4th in the Big Ten so the Gophers will be missing out on the top two predicted teams in the league but they will be getting teams picked 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th out of 18 in the preseason predictions. Penn State hopes to take that next step this year. Can Drew Allar get them there? Can James Franklin get them there? Penn State is a veteran team that avoids Michigan and Oregon so hopes are very high.
