The trade deadline is now just a week away and several teams are still unsure how aggressively to buy or sell between now and then. Per a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Mets are hoping to do some buying but the extent of their shopping will likely come down to what other clubs are making available.
The Mets had a disastrous season in 2023. Despite running the highest payroll in MLB history, they fell out of contention and wound up selling at the deadline. That included flipping marquee names like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, eating salary in order to bring back greater prospects that bolstered their farm system.
Coming into 2024, they added to their roster but focused mainly on short-term deals, ideally improving their chances at competing in 2024 while leaving plenty of future flexibility intact. This year has had its ups and downs but they are currently 51-48 and in possession of the final Wild Card spot in the National League, so it makes sense that they would consider themselves buyers.
Hanging onto that playoff spot will be a challenge in a fairly crowded race. There are three clubs within a game of the Mets and seven within 4.5 games. Given that the club has been trying to restock its farm system and still isn’t a sure thing for the playoffs this year, they may prefer marginal adds that don’t involve significant prospect cost. Sammon reports that this is essentially how the club sees things, as they will be looking to make additions in ways that don’t hurt them in subsequent seasons, a similar mindset to their recent offseason.
Sammon uses the recent Phil Maton trade as an example, since the Mets took that contract off the Rays’ hands without having to surrender any prospect capital. Since the Mets have been willing to spend lavishly under owner Steve Cohen, taking on money in order to reduce prospect costs could logically be their preferred trading method. That’s in spite of the fact that they are paying a massive 110% tax on any further spending since they are a three-time payor of the competitive balance tax that is well above the highest tier.
Similar trades to address the bullpen may be forthcoming in the next week, with Sammon using Chad Green of the Blue Jays as a hypothetical example. The Jays picked up a club option for Green’s services that will pay him $21MM over the 2024 and 2025 seasons. They have now fallen out of contention and may have interest in ducking under the competitive balance tax, which could lead the two sides to line up on a trade that further bolsters the Mets’ bullpen and mostly provides the Jays with salary relief. Regardless of how the trades ultimately play out, upgrading the bullpen makes plenty of sense since Mets’ relievers have a collective 4.14 earned run average that placed them 19th in the league.
But as Sammon highlights, what the Mets do at the deadline will ultimately be determined by what’s available. All year long, the narrative around this summer’s deadline has focused on the lack of clear sellers. With the expanded playoffs, there are currently only six teams more than 7.5 games from a postseason spot. Per Sammon and other reports from around the baseball world, several clubs are still having various conversations and trying to figure out their plans of attack for the next week. Among the clubs that are firmly in the seller camp, some of them are rebuilding clubs that will likely be looking to maximize prospect hauls, such as the Marlins and White Sox.
One way or another, it seems the Mets will be making additions, even if they end up being modest. The flip side of that, of course, is that they don’t intend to be sellers. There were times earlier in the season when the Mets were struggling and it seemed possible that first baseman Pete Alonso could be made available. He is an impending free agent and it would make sense to make him available if the club were out of contention.
But since they have climbed back into a playoff spot, that doesn’t seem to be a possibility now. Sammon reports that the club is unlikely to trade Alonso, even if they suffer through a losing streak over the next week. That will mean leaving some trade value on the table but the Mets could recoup a bit of that by making Alonso a qualifying offer, though the pick would be fairly modest since CBT payors receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round.
Sammon also throws some cold water on the possibility of the Mets trading from their relatively strong rotation. It had been reported earlier this month that the Mets were considering selling a starting pitcher even if they stayed in the buyer camp, simply due to the number of viable starters they have on hand. Kodai Senga has been on the injured list all year but could be rejoining the club this week, entering a rotation mix that also consists of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Christian Scott, David Peterson, Jose Quintana and Tylor Megill, with José Buttó and Adrian Houser also on the roster but currently working out of the bullpen.
There would be some logic to trading someone from that group to upgrade another part of the roster and hoping that the depth would be strong enough to last through the season, but Sammon reports that the club will be reluctant to do so unless they get blown away by an offer. If such an offer were to be considered, Severino and Quintana would be the most logical candidates since they are impending free agents. Manaea could also return to the open market but he has a player option for 2025 that would complicate his trade candidacy.
Again, the external market forces figure to be playing a role here. As Sammon notes, a number of teams are looking for starting pitching and the lack of sellers might lead to the Mets getting some interesting offers that tempt them away from their preference for hanging onto the current group.
Sammon also adds that upgrading right field is another area the club could explore, with the caveat that it may be harder to accomplish that without giving up prospect talent. Starling Marte is having a solid season overall, with a line of .278/.328/.416 and 115 wRC+. But he’s now 35 years old and his health has become an increasing problem in recent years. He’s currently on the injured list with a bone bruise in his knee and the club has recently rotated Tyrone Taylor, DJ Stewart and Jeff McNeil through the position without any of them taking a firm hold of the job.
The list of possible trade candidates includes corner outfielders such as Taylor Ward, Randy Arozarena, Brent Rooker, Jesse Winker, Lane Thomas, Tommy Pham, Kevin Pillar and Miguel Andujar. But all of those guys are either still in their arbitration years or playing on modest free agent deals, meaning their current clubs would likely prioritize prospect-heavy returns as opposed to salary relief in any trade talks. Corner outfielders making notable salaries include George Springer, Mitch Haniger and old friend Michael Conforto, though it’s unclear if the Mets would be interested in taking on significant money to get any of those guys.
